The BugOut Index moved from 57.19 on 2026-10-23 to 57.31, a change of +0.12 points.
Debt-to-GDP changed from 122.59387 (observed 2026-01-01) to 121.18773 (observed 2026-04-01) (change of -1.40614).
Unchanged core inputs: inflation stayed at 3.7172508442689933 (observed 2026-09-01); crime stayed at 2,443.27 (file vintage, last known month April 2026; crime file through April 2026; file updated 2026-06-16); unemployment stayed at 4.2 (observed 2026-09-01); homelessness stayed at 0.22 (manual, last set 2025 HUD AHAR); trust in government stayed at 39 (annual, 2026).
The Treasury yield spread changed from 0.31 to 0.38 (change of +0.07; observed 2026-10-30), and VIX changed from 19.03 to 17.2 (change of -1.83; observed 2026-10-29).
Unchanged pulse series: initial jobless claims stayed at 194,000 (observed 2026-10-24); U. Michigan consumer sentiment stayed at 48.1 (observed 2026-09-01); OECD business confidence stayed at 98.96989 (observed 2024-01-01, stale, unchanged across recorded weeks).
Gold changed from 3,996.8999 to 3,876.3999 (change of -120.5), silver changed from 54.046 to 49.254 (change of -4.792), and the US dollar index changed from 121.4048 to 121.3202 (change of -0.0846); markets fetched 2026-10-31.
Markets, the short-term pulse, the labor-utilization shadow series, the food-price shadow series, the NYC DHS shelter-census shadow series, the Ramsey County shelter-census shadow series, the Nashville, Austin, and Denver shelter shadow series, the San Francisco shelter-occupancy shadow series, the Pew public-trust shadow series, and the Gallup confidence shadow series are not inputs to the BugOut Index score.
Headline labor numbers move after release. See how much the last 24 months of payrolls have been revised on the data revisions tracker.
These readings are companions only. They are not in the BugOut Index and they have no weight. Replacing headline unemployment still requires a backtest.
Each point is a FRED observation month, not a BugOut Index publication week. Not in the BugOut Index.
This reading is a companion only. It is not in the BugOut Index and it has no weight. The figure is the public 12-month change in food prices (FRED CPIUFDNS, BLS CUUR0000SAF1), rounded to one decimal the way BLS prints that table. It is not a score.
Each point is a FRED observation month, not a BugOut Index publication week. Not in the BugOut Index.
This reading is a companion only. It is not in the BugOut Index and it has no weight.
It is a New York City headcount from
NYC Open Data k46n-sa2m
(field total_individuals_in_shelter), not a national rate and not a substitute for the HUD AHAR homelessness input.
Each point is a DHS census date, not a BugOut Index publication week. New York City only. Not in the BugOut Index.
This reading is a companion only. It is not in the BugOut Index and it has no weight.
It is copied from the Metro Nashville Office of Homeless Services
HMIS monthly data reports.
The latest row is people who experienced homelessness in Nashville during that month.
Nashville Rescue Mission figures on the same PDF are separate and are not added.
A person updates runtime/data/shelter_region_shadow.csv. The weekly job does not download the PDF.
Each point is a month from the checklist, not a BugOut Index publication week. Nashville–Davidson only. Not in the BugOut Index.
This reading is a companion only. It is not in the BugOut Index and it has no weight. It is the ECHO Homelessness Response System dashboard card for people engaged in the past six months and likely experiencing sheltered homelessness. The June 2025 dashboard was published September 10, 2025, with a data-effective date of July 1, 2025. That publication lag stays on the tile. A person updates the checklist. The weekly job does not scrape the dashboard.
This reading is a companion only. It is not in the BugOut Index and it has no weight.
It is a Ramsey County headcount from
Ramsey County open data 9mck-bcqu
(field population_enrollees, summed across household types), not a national rate and not a substitute for the HUD AHAR homelessness input.
Each point is a county month, not a BugOut Index publication week. Ramsey County only. Not in the BugOut Index.
This reading is a companion only. It is not in the BugOut Index and it has no weight. It is the occupancy rate Denver HOST published for its performance-based contracting pilot (seven shelters, 769 units) in the August 4, 2026 results. The monthly citywide view is the All In Mile High dashboard. A person copies the next cited figure into the checklist. The weekly job does not scrape that dashboard.
This reading is a companion only. It is not in the BugOut Index and it has no weight.
It is the monthly average occupancy rate of year-round temporary shelter and crisis intervention programs from
DataSF kc49-udxn
measure 279. The source stores a ratio; this tile shows percent. It is not a person count and not a substitute for the HUD AHAR homelessness input.
Each point is a scorecard month, not a BugOut Index publication week. San Francisco only. Not a headcount. Not in the BugOut Index.
This reading is a companion only. It is not in the BugOut Index and it has no weight. The levels are not interchangeable with the Edelman Trust Barometer US Government input (survey year 2025, value 41). The weekly job reads a short excerpt from the checklist. It does not download Pew’s full series.
Each point is a Pew survey date from the checklist excerpt, not a BugOut Index publication week. Not in the BugOut Index. Not the Edelman trust input.
These readings are companions only. They are not in the BugOut Index and they have no weight. They are not interchangeable with the Edelman Trust Barometer US Government input. The checklist stores the current annual reading only. It is not a republication of Gallup’s historical series. Continuous republication of Gallup data may require permission.
The BugOut Index is a directional stress and stability reading (methodology v1.1.1). Six published statistics sit between fixed endpoints and combine into one 0–100 score. Higher means those conditions are less stressed. The number shows how hard the published inputs are pressing. It is not a forecast, and it is not an instruction to bug out. Markets, the short-term pulse, labor utilization, food prices, the U.S. regional shelter companions, Pew public trust, and Gallup confidence in institutions on this page are companions. They are not in the score. Edelman remains the trust input. The shelter readings are local: New York City, Nashville–Davidson, Austin/Travis County, Ramsey County (Minnesota), Denver, and San Francisco. None of them is a U.S. total. Denver and San Francisco are occupancy rates, not headcounts. HUD AHAR remains the annual national homelessness input. Several inputs update monthly, quarterly, or once a year, so many weeks the number does not move. Crime under methodology 1.1.0 is the Real-Time Crime Index Nationwide Full Sample rate for the latest month in the file. Weeks through 2026-10-02 stay methodology 1.0.0, with crime locked at 2,723.0. See methodology for the calculation, weights, and limits. The committed weekly files are the record of a past score. Rerunning the publisher fetches current observations and does not rebuild that week.
For the long-horizon structural picture — whether the country is currently set up to produce broadly-shared prosperity and mobility over years and decades — see the American Dream Reality Index (ADRI). ADRI updates annually and weights toward education, health, real income, employment, inequality, and civic and safety fundamentals. The two indexes answer different questions. The BugOut Index is a weekly reading of pressure in a few published series. ADRI moves on slow structural conditions. Each can move for reasons the other does not catch.